Refinery Input and Crude Production Back to Recent Highs

U.S. commercial inventories fell by 3.4 MMbbl to 445 MMbbl, while the SPR added 500 Mbbl of sour crude from June's 3 MMbbl purchase program. Lower 48 crude production rose by 100 Mb/d to 12.9 MMb/d due to re-benchmarking, matching February 2024 levels, and rigs remained flat at 479. OPEC raised its demand estimates for OPEC+ crude by 100 Mb/d for 2024 and 2025, forecasting outputs of 43.1 MMb/d and 43.9 MMb/d, and maintained high global oil demand growth estimates. Imports dropped by 610 Mb/d in PADDs 1-4 but rose by 1.63 MMb/d in PADD 5, with Canadian imports down to 3.6 MMb/d. Crude exports fell by 400 Mb/d to 4 MMb/d and are expected to decline further due to Hurricane Beryl. Refinery input saw a 350 Mb/d increase, boosting utilization rate to 95.4%. Market prices had WTI at $83.16/bbl, Brent at $86.54/bbl, and diesel at $3.87/gal. And finally, despite Hurricane Beryl causing minor disruptions, major Gulf Coast refineries were minimally impacted, though Shell's Perdido platform shut down.