On his first earnings call as CEO, Andy O’Brien pointed to the Lower 48 as ConocoPhillips’ growth engine. Total production was 2.302 MMboe/d in Q3, with guidance of 2.32-2.36 MMboe/d for Q4 and low-single-digit growth expected in 2027 on lower capital. Permian completion crews pumped 15% more hours than their 2025 average, and one crew hit a record 23 hours a day in August by fracking several wells at once. EVP Kirk Johnson said rising activity, mostly from smaller operators, is “tightening capacity, especially across the oilfield services space,” with rig utilization above 90% and frac fleets above 75%.
LNG is the next leg of growth. ConocoPhillips now holds 13 MTPA of offtake, about 1.7 Bcf/d of feedgas. Its first new volumes come from Port Arthur LNG Phase 1 in Jefferson County, TX, where it is a 30% owner and Train 1 is due to start up in 2027. With TTF near $30 and Henry Hub below $4, against the $10 and $4 in its long-term plan, O’Brien said, “we can’t get these volumes on fast enough.” Back home, the company’s Permian gas price flipped from negative in Q2 to 69% of Henry Hub in Q3 as new pipeline takeaway capacity came online.
Willow, in Alaska’s National Petroleum Reserve, remains on track for first oil in early 2029. Its processing modules are more than 75% complete on the Gulf Coast and will be shipped to Alaska in summer 2027, when development drilling also begins.
In Qatar, ConocoPhillips’ LNG production rose in Q3 but remains below pre-conflict levels as Strait of Hormuz disruptions limit flows, and Q4 guidance allows for a range of outcomes. Johnson said construction on North Field East has continued, with startup still expected in the first half of 2027 and North Field South to follow. The conflict is also raising costs for fuel, logistics and chemicals, by double digits in some categories, though Johnson said overall inflation remains in the low single digits.
