ConocoPhillips’ 1Q 2026 call was dominated by the impact of Middle East disruptions on oil and LNG markets, with management saying the conflict has reinforced the importance of U.S. and global energy security. On oil, COP estimated about 10 MMb/d of production had been offline for roughly two months, with global refinery run cuts of around 8 MMb/d absorbing much of the shortage so far. Management now sees global oil demand as roughly flat year-on-year, with downside risk if the conflict persists, and warned that import-dependent countries could face critical shortages by June/July.
The LNG commentary was more specific, the COP team said the disruption to Qatari flows represents about 20% of global LNG supply, equal to roughly 200 cargoes that have not sailed. COP pointed out that the market has shifted from concerns about a potential glut to a structurally tighter setup. Management also flagged low European gas inventories and said buyers are showing more interest in securing LNG supply from the U.S. Gulf Coast, where Port Arthur LNG remains on track for first LNG in 2027.
In other upcoming projects, Willow, the company’s large Alaska North Slope oil development, is now 50% complete, and first oil is still expected in 2029. In Equatorial Guinea, a third-party tolling deal is expected to keep the existing LNG plant highly utilized and extend its life into the 2030s. In Qatar, construction on the NFE and NFS LNG expansions is continuing, but management said delays of “months” are possible, potentially pushing a previously expected second-half 2026 startup into early 2027.
On U.S. production, COP’s response to higher prices is measured rather than aggressive. The company plans on stepping up Permian activity in the second half of 2026, mainly in the Delaware Basin, to keep pace with completion efficiencies and avoid gaps for frac crews heading into 2027. In Canada, COP’s liquids-rich Montney position remains on a roughly one-rig pace, but management said faster growth would depend on more gas offtake from British Columbia LNG projects.
