Premium Narrows Between WTI Corpus Christi and Midland East Houston

There is no debate about it: The CME/NYMEX domestic sweet (DSW) crude oil futures prompt-month contract at Cushing, OK, is the most closely followed benchmark in U.S. energy markets. It’s the price quoted in nightly news reports and general media publications. And now, with U.S. exports of WTI deliverable on the Brent contract, domestic sweet at Cushing is arguably setting the price for crudes around the world. But the fact is, most crudes traded in physical markets across North America are not priced at the DSW-at-Cushing benchmark but instead at a differential to Cushing — higher or lower on any given day based on each crude’s unique quality, location, and supply/demand characteristics. In today’s RBN blog, we discuss how the behavior of differentials from the Cushing benchmark can go a long way to explain what is happening with crude oil production, transportation volumes, storage and, of course, exports.

Crude oil exports hit 5.6 MMb/d last week, the second-highest level in EIA stats ever. Exports in the first six months of the year have averaged 4.1 MMb/d, 28% — or nearly 1 MMb/d — higher than the same period in 2022. And with Midland WTI crude now deliverable into global benchmark Brent, even more exports are on the way. Which makes it ever more important to understand how physical spot crude oil is priced at Gulf Coast export terminals.  After all, exporters only move crude off the dock when they can make money doing so — well, at least most of the time. And that depends on what it costs to get a given crude grade to the dock, what it’s worth when it gets there, the cost of shipping to overseas destinations, and the price realized when the cargo lands there. To shed more light on those export economics, in today’s RBN blog, we continue our exploration of crude oil pricing in the markets for physical U.S. and Canadian crudes. 

CME’s NYMEX light sweet crude oil contract in Cushing, OK, is not West Texas Intermediate — WTI. Instead, it is Domestic Sweet — commonly referred to as DSW — with quality specifications that are broader and generally inferior to Midland-sourced WTI. In fact, pristine Midland WTI delivered to Cushing sells at a reasonably healthy premium to DSW. That difference in specs, and the fact that the quality of DSW is considerably more variable than straight-as-an-arrow Midland WTI, makes most purchasers of exported U.S. crude (and many domestic refiners too) strongly prefer the more quality-consistent Midland WTI grade. For that reason, when Platts set out to allow U.S. light crude to be delivered as Brent, it said that only Midland WTI will qualify. Consequently, a marketer cannot take delivery of a NYMEX-quality barrel at Cushing, pipe it down to the Gulf Coast, and deliver it to a dock for export if the ultimate destination of that barrel is to be reflected in the Brent price assessment. The implication? There are now effectively two U.S. crude oil benchmark grades, each of which is valued differently, priced differently and used by different markets. Is this a big deal for the valuation mechanisms for U.S. crude oils, or just a minor quirk in oil-market nomenclature? We’ll explore that question in today’s RBN blog.