Permian production was relatively flat last week, averaging 23.1 Bcf/d, in line with where it has been throughout the month of August (see dark orange line in chart below). However, the rig count is climbing, setting the basin up for future growth when Blackcomb and Hugh Brinson pipelines come on later this year. Hugh Brinson has some capacity online but will ramp up to 1.5 Bcf/d this year, and then to 2.2 Bcf/d next year. Blackcomb is commissioning and will have a capacity of 2.5 Bcf/d by the end of the year. Combined, these will provide ample room for production to grow. RBN expects production to climb to around 23.9 Bcf/d by the end of the year and then continue growing in 2027 with production exceeding 25 Bcf/d by year-end.
Source: RBN NATGAS Permian, Wood Mackenzie
Outflows from the Permian to other regions were down last week, with high in-basin demand alleviating some pressure on flows to the East. Outflows to the East averaged 13.5 Bcf/d, down 0.3 Bcf/d week-on-week. Outflows on all the greenfield pipelines remained strong, with flows on legacy pipelines falling. This is typical for the basin, the newer routes tend to stay full, with flows on legacy routes adjusting based on the overall supply demand balance of the basin. Outflows to Mexico average 2.1 Bcf/d last week. Exports to Mexico through Waha continue to be very strong this summer. Outflows to the West averaged 2.7 Bcf/d, consistent with the prior week. Outflows to the North averaged 1.8 Bcf/d, up 0.1 Bcf/d week-on-week with rebounding flows on Northern Natural and on El Paso towards San Juan.
