Intake of natural gas at the LNG Canada site in Kitimat, BC is expected to drop to less that 1 Bcf/d in November as the plant undergoes maintenance and restarts of both of its liquefaction trains as reported in our Canadian NatGas Billboard. Based on the company’s latest notifications, intermittent flaring is planned from November 8 to December 5 with Train 2 scheduled for maintenance and a restart from November 11 to 16, inclusive; Train 1 maintenance and a restart from November 18 to 25, inclusive; and more work and a restart for Train 2 from November 27 to December 1, inclusive. With this schedule now available, we have greatly reduced our expectations for the site’s gas intake in November from 1.50 Bcf/d to 0.95 Bcf/d (red column in chart below) after averaging an estimated 1.50 Bcf/d in October (green column).
Daily gas intake, computed as a combination of reported pipeline flows and our estimates, point to LNG Canada's gas use in early November as having pulled back from recent higher levels in October (blue dashed rectangle in chart below) as the site prepares for maintenance; the rate of tanker loadings has noticeably slowed in recent days, suggesting reduced availability of LNG prior to the onset of maintenance. Once the work has been completed by early December, daily gas intake is expected to increase and possibly rise to near 2.1 Bcf/d on a more consistent basis given the expansion of upstream pipeline connections in early November.
