Gulf Coast LPG/Propane Spot Terminaling Rates Fall Back to Earth

<p>U.S.&nbsp; propane production from natural gas processing has doubled over the past five years, but domestic demand has hardly moved the needle.&nbsp; So the only way the propane market has balanced is through exports, and it is no overstatement to say that the ship has really come in for U.S.</p>

It’s been a chaotic start to the new year for propane. In the past 12 days, the Mont Belvieu price is up over 15%, closing on Tuesday at 87 cents/gallon — the highest since October 2018. The usual culprit of winter weather has something to do with it, but not just in North America. Over the past couple of weeks, frigid temperatures in Asia, along with supply cutbacks from the Saudis, have supported U.S. propane exports to those markets, further tightening the U.S. supply/demand balance. But as is often the case these days, the market has another complicating factor. Delays transiting the Panama Canal have stacked up VLGCs — the vessels carrying U.S. propane to Asia — on both the Atlantic and Pacific sides of the waterway, pushing up charter rates to levels not seen in years. And on top of that, new transit-scheduling rules from the Panama Canal Authority will shove VLGCs to the back of the line, potentially making it even more difficult to get through the canal without significant delays. Today, we’ll explore these developments and what they may portend for the remaining weeks of winter.

Are you ready for Trumpian turmoil? Regardless of your opinion of the president-elect, you’ve got to acknowledge he’ll be shaking things up. In fact, with talk of a tariff blitz poised to disrupt global trade, mass deportations on deck, notions like reclaiming the Panama Canal, buying Greenland and even annexing Canada, the turmoil is already well underway. And of course, energy markets will be front and center, with “Drill, baby, drill” the stated oil and gas policy du jour. With so much uncertainty ahead, it’s impossible to predict what will happen in 2025, right? Nah. All we need to do is stick out our collective RBN necks one more time, peer into our crystal ball, and see what the new year has in store for us.