The Energy Information Administration (EIA)’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) says Gulf of Mexico oil and natural gas production will remain flat through 2025 as new output offsets natural declines from existing fields. The agency recently implemented a new GOM production forecasting model that combines analysis of well-level historical production data with upcoming field developments.

The EIA is forecasting that 1.8 MMb/d of crude oil will be produced in the GOM this year and 1.9 MMb/d in 2025, compared with 1.9 MMb/d in 2023. The EIA also expects natural gas production to average 1.8 Bcf/d this year and in 2025, compared with 2.0 Bcf/d in 2023 (see charts below). These volumes show the GOM’s portion of overall U.S. output is 14% of oil production and 2% of marketed natural gas production.

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