Turner Mason

Last week US crude oil production reached 8.4 MMb/d – its highest level since October 1986 – up 50 percent since the start of 2011. The engines of growth are Texas and North Dakota and within those states, horizontal drilling in tight oil shale are generating the most exciting results. And while production is soaring, proved reserves are increasing even faster – laying the groundwork for continued output. Today we look at past, current and future US crude production growth.

The new Turner Mason (TMC) study titled “North American Crude and Condensate Outlook” (NACCO) forecasts a high case 8.2 MMb/d increase in crude supplies from US and Canadian production over the next 10 years. While most crude imports will be pushed out by this production surge over the 10-year period, a minimum structural import level of about 1.4 MMb/d will remain. As domestic and Canadian crude supplies overwhelm refining capacity in coastal regions TMC predict crude exports will be required to balance demand. Today we review TMC’s crude market and refinery operations predictions.