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Seasons in the Shade - What Happened to Natural Gas Seasonality?
September NYMEX natural gas closed up a nickel yesterday at $2.96/MMbtu. The January 2013 contract closed at $3.537 – a winter summer spread of $0.57/MMbtu, but the average seasonal spread in the futures market has fallen from $0.62/MMbtu just two years ago to $0.39/MMbtu this week. There was a time not that long ago when the winter-summer spread was measured in dollars. Now it seems to be fading into oblivion. Today we search for signs of seasonality in the forward curves.