Rover

The U.S. Northeast natural gas market has had a volatile few weeks. Regional gas production has surged, averaging 30.4 Bcf/d in the second half of October (2018), up 800 MMcf/d from the first half of the month and up nearly 1 Bcf/d from the September average. Normally (for the past several years), those kinds of supply gains, particularly in a shoulder month and during maintenance season, would have one result: Marcellus/Utica prices taking a nosedive. But that’s not exactly the case this year. Instead, Appalachian spot prices have been on a wild ride the past few weeks, swinging from barely $1.00/MMBtu (or more than $2.00/MMBtu below Henry Hub) on October 8, to over $3.00 (just $0.12 under Henry) on October 24 — the highest levels seen at this time of year since 2013, both in terms of outright prices and basis differentials to Henry Hub. The catalyst is nearly 3 Bcf/d of new takeaway capacity from the growing producing region that has been added in recent weeks, including, most recently, partial service on a brand-new route on Enbridge/DTE Energy’s 1.5-Bcf/d NEXUS Gas Transmission. What does this latest round of expansions and the resulting basis strength mean for the Northeast and its downstream gas markets? In today’s blog, we discuss highlights from our new 26-page report on evolving Northeast gas takeaway capacity utilization and additions, and their effects on price relationships.

While many are getting ready for the usual trappings of fall — Halloween, Thanksgiving turkey and Black Friday sales — Northeast natural gas market participants are gearing up for their own seasonal ritual — gas pipeline takeaway expansions. Two days ago, Enbridge/DTE Energy’s 1.5-Bcf/d NEXUS Gas Transmission pipeline received approval to start partial service for nearly 1 Bcf/d of capacity. That follows Williams/Transco’s Atlantic Sunrise natural gas project, which launched service for its full 1.7 Bcf/d of southbound capacity last week (on October 6). Also last week, TransCanada/Columbia Gas Transmission was given the nod for partial service on both its Mountaineer Xpress and WB Xpress projects. Then there’s Energy Transfer’s Rover Pipeline, which is awaiting approval for its final two laterals. Combined, these projects are poised to add more than 4.0 Bcf/d of Marcellus/Utica takeaway capacity before the coldest months of winter arrive. What does that mean for the Northeast gas market this winter? Today, we provide an update on Atlantic Sunrise’s early effects and other upcoming projects completions.

With the addition of new large-diameter natural gas pipelines like Energy Transfer Partners’ Rover Pipeline and Enbridge and DTE’s NEXUS Gas Transmission, the dog days of severely depressed gas prices in the U.S. Northeast will be diminishing (though not disappearing entirely), but they are just getting started for its downstream markets. After years of constrained natural gas supply growth, Northeast takeaway capacity appears to be outpacing regional production volumes more and more, and RBN’s analysis of production economics suggests that, left unconstrained, the Marcellus/Utica gas market is set to unleash an incremental 8 Bcf/d into the broader U.S. gas market by 2023, with the bulk of that volume targeting consumption in the Midwest and Gulf Coast regions. In today’s blog, we walk through our outlook for Northeast takeaway capacity and gas production, and by extension, U.S. gas supply.

For the first time in five years, takeaway expansions are outpacing Northeast production growth. Major natural gas takeaway capacity additions on large-diameter pipes like Tallgrass Energy’s Rockies Express Pipeline and Energy Transfer Partners’ Rover Pipeline over the past couple of years are allowing Marcellus/Utica natural gas producers to send record amounts of gas supply to the Midwest and, indirectly, to the Gulf Coast region. At the same time, there are some small pockets of unused takeaway capacity appearing on some of the legacy routes out of the region, which means that Appalachian basis levels — prices relative to Henry Hub — have risen to the strongest levels since 2013. For downstream markets like Chicago and Dawn, ON, that’s meant a flood of gas and lower prices. In today’s blog, we continue our series on the Northeast gas market with the effects of these new dynamics on gas price relationships.

For the first time in years, natural gas takeaway capacity constraints from the Marcellus/Utica producing region appear to be easing, even as production volumes from the area continue to record new highs. That’s allowed regional supply prices this year to strengthen dramatically relative to national benchmark Henry Hub. A closer look at pipeline flow data indicates these developments stem from shifting gas flows that coincide with the ramp-up of Energy Transfer Partners’ Rover Pipeline. In today’s blog, we continue our update of the Northeast gas market with the latest on Rover’s gas receipts, along with its effects on other regional takeaway capacity and price relationships.

Permian Basin natural gas production is growing at a torrid pace. After starting 2017 just below 6 Bcf/d, production is set to breach the 8-Bcf/d mark soon on its way to 10 Bcf/d by the end of 2019. Pipelines flowing out of the basin are coming under increasing strain, and just about every single gas pipeline leaving the Waha hub in West Texas is now being utilized at levels not witnessed in years — if ever. Even routes north from the Permian to the Midcontinent and Midwest markets, traditionally only attractive on the coldest winter days, are starting to look viable year-round. Today, we look at recent gas-price and flow trends in the Permian natural gas market.

Energy Transfer Partners Rover Pipeline’s Mainline A first began flowing natural gas west from the Marcellus/Utica on September 1, and volumes are now averaging about 1.0 Bcf/d. The bulk of that is being delivered into TransCanada’s ANR Pipeline and, pipeline flow data shows some of that, either directly or indirectly, is making it all the way south to the Gulf Coast, specifically toward Cheniere Energy’s Sabine Pass LNG liquefaction and export facility (SPL). Deliveries to the facility have climbed to nearly 3.0 Bcf/d in recent weeks as the fourth liquefaction train was brought online. Along the way, the Rover-ANR combo is increasing competition with other pipes that feed ANR, including other Marcellus/Utica takeaway pipelines such as REX and Dominion. Today, we look at how Rover has changed flow patterns for gas targeting Gulf Coast demand.