NPV

The internal rates of return (IRR) for our model of a typical Haynesville dry gas shale well is in the low teens at today’s gas prices. That is a low return compared to the liquids rich plays that producers are concentrating on these days. The economics of shale well production are calculated the same way for liquid shale plays – there is just more uplift from the higher priced liquids output. And natural gas output continues to surge with associated gas from the liquid wells. Today we complete our analysis of shale production economics.

With natural gas prices for CME NYMEX Henry Hub futures averaging $3.69/MMBtu so far this year, you might think that the internal rate of return (IRR) for dry natural gas wells in the Haynesville would be under water.  But in fact, wells are still being drilled with IRRs in the low teens.  Granted these wells don’t look nearly as good as liquids plays in other shale basins, but the wells are profitable.  How could this be when the cost of a typical deep, multistage horizontal well in the Haynesville can run $9 million? Today we take you through the math in our production economics model and provide a downloadable spreadsheet.

Oil and gas shale production economics are creating an era of low cost energy in the US. But how do you decide if drilling one well is any more profitable than drilling another well next door or in a different basin? Just like with any other investment opportunity you compare net present values (NPV) and internal rates of return IRR). Today we continue our rundown of shale production financial return calculations with a review of variable production costs and NPV.