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Just in Time - Chesapeake Counters Gas-Price Nadir With Output Slash, Innovative Inventory Build

Faced with sustained sub-$2/MMBtu natural gas prices and dim prospects for significant gas-demand growth until sometime next year, a number of major gas-focused E&Ps have been tapping the brakes on production and trimming their planned 2024 capex. But one company — Chesapeake Energy, slated to become the U.S.’s largest gas producer thanks to a recently announced acquisition — has taken a more dramatic step, implementing a novel strategy that will slash production by 25% but leave the E&P ready to quickly ramp up its output as soon as demand and prices warrant. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll review the 2024 guidance of the major U.S. gas producers and delve into the analysis of Chesapeake’s unusual approach. 

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Finally - After a Long Courtship, Gas-Focused Chesapeake and Southwestern Put a Ring On It

In a deal the energy industry had been whispering about for months, Chesapeake Energy and Southwestern Energy will combine to form what will be the largest natural gas producer in the U.S., with 7.3 Bcf/d of production in the Marcellus/Utica and the Haynesville and ready access to the Northeast and the LNG export market — assuming the merger passes muster with federal regulators. In today’s RBN blog, we discuss the merger and why it makes sense for both E&Ps. 

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Ignition Timing Countdown: 1.4 Bcf/d Increase in Natural Gas Demand from Methanol?

Author Jim Jordan

Could the construction of new production capacity for one chemical product result in a 1.4 Bcf/d increase in natural gas demand?  Yes it could - if all the methanol plants that have been announced and are on the drawing board get built.  Of course, it is pretty unlikely that they will all get built, but even if only the best projects are completed, they will still consume a lot of gas.  Today we’ll lay out the new plant construction numbers.

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Panhandle Hog Shoot – Anadarko Basin Crude Production

The Anadarko Basin centered in Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle has not yet developed production on the scale of the Bakken, Eagle Ford or Permian plays. Like the Permian Basin the Anadarko is an old field being recycled using horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing techniques. Spectacular initial production of over 5Mb/d from wells in the Granite Wash Hogshooter formation this year has excited producers. Today we look at the basin’s development.

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You Can Pay Me Now, Or Pay Me Later – Does it Make Sense Shut-In Natural Gas?

With natural gas prices hanging at numbers around $2.50/MMbtu and possibly headed lower, there is a lot of talk about shut-ins.  Presumably going out to the wellhead and turning off the valve.  A couple of weeks ago, Jim Hackett, Anadarko CEO told a Rice University audience that “at current gas prices, gas operators can't sustain profitable domestic operations. By shutting in some of their wells, prices quickly would rebound.”  Is that true?  Is it a good idea?

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Right, you're bloody well right – You’ve got a lot of propane to store.

Over the past couple of years, the NGL market has cussed and discussed every nuance of PADD I ethane.  The fear that ethane bottlenecks would curtail Marcellus drilling worried a lot of producers, and their investors.  But it finally  looks like the problem is being fixed, and the winners are settling out.  MarkWest and Sunoco will take 50 Mb/d north to Sarnia, Ontario on Mariner West.  And another 90 Mb/d will go south on Enterprise’s ATEX Express, the TEPPCO line reversal project.  Chesapeake and Range have both signed up to move barrels on ATEX which runs from MarkWest`s Houston, PA plant down to the Enterprise storage complex in Mont. Belvieu.  It’s nice to have one problem behind us.  Unless of course it turns out that Utica ethane piles on to the top of Marcellus.  But that’s another story.

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Shut-in by Press Release – Part Deux

We finally got that press release warning of shut-ins from Chesapeake, and it had the expected impact on price.  Feb was up 18.2 cents to $2.525.  The market was oversold and the smart money had gone long, so it was the perfect triggering event for a bump up.  But as we said a couple of weeks ago in Shut In by Press Release, beware of producers bearing gifts.   The economics of shut-in rarely make sense.