Bitumen Crude

Growing Canadian production of oil sands bitumen requires diluent to blend it to pipeline flow specifications. The resulting demand for diluent exceeds local Canadian supply from plant condensate production (aka, natural gasoline) – leading to imports from the US of more than 150 Mb/d in 2013 – a figure expected to grow to 460 Mb/d by 2018. That expectation for future import growth is based on the assumption that Canadian condensate supplies would remain relatively flat at about 140 Mb/d. But could the developing Duvernay gas shale play in Western Alberta turn those estimates on their head? Today we investigate the consequences for US condensate demand.