Annual Energy Outlook

The golden years of natural gas abundance are off and running, with export projects, new industrial proposals, new power generation use, and expanded transportation use - all building on a perception of long-term abundant supply at reasonable prices.  Does it all work out in the end?  Do supply and demand balance at stable, affordable prices, even with a lot more demand?  Today we examine the likelihood that gas producers can provide adequate supplies without causing significant upward pressure on prices.

The golden years of natural gas abundance in which we find ourselves are sparking tremendous enthusiasm among potential users of the fuel, from power generators to major industrial companies, to exporters both current and potential.  After all, a trifecta of cheap, abundant, and clean is hard to resist.  But the big question is  how supply and demand really shake out after everyone’s enthusiasm results in new and growing use of the resource.  Is the natural gas industry going to be able to supply all the new demand without prices going up the way they have in the past, most recently hitting double-digits at Henry Hub just five years ago?  The first step in order to weigh supply against demand is to have a plausible scenario of what that demand might be. What does it all add up to?  So in today’s blog we will see how much demand we should be trying to meet, to be followed later by a next installment to see how producers might meet it.