Arrow Model Monthly - Jul 17, 2026
- Historic and current production has been updated using data from Novi Labs.
- This created a change in the production forecast, leading to higher predicted production in Texas and lower production in Louisiana.
- Timeline for Hugh Brinson flows has accelerated.
Production is a key input into the Arrow Model, showing us where we expect gas to emerge from wells over the coming decade. The model then takes our production assumptions as well as our demand assumptions and computes how we expect flows and basis to react in order to get natural gas from the production zone to the major demand centers. In this month’s edition of the Arrow Model, production figures have been reworked based on proprietary Novi Labs data, so that historic and current wellhead production data are consistent with what is found elsewhere in our firm’s offering. This ensures that Arrow is supplied with the most accurate and up-to-date information on the basins where gas originates.
The main effect of the change in the production model is to increase current and projected supply in Northeast TX while decreasing it in Northwest LA. This means that higher flows of gas from Texas to Louisiana are prominent in this edition, particularly on Arrow R from Northwest TX to Northeast LA. In the near term, we have accelerated gas flows from the Hugh Brinson pipeline from the Permian Basin to Northeast TX on Arrow C based on developments in that project’s timeline. This brings even more gas into Northeast TX over the coming year, exacerbating the trends downstream of the higher production totals in that region.
