Follow Your Arrow: RBN’s Arrow Model Points the Way For Gas Market

Big changes are coming to the new epicenter of the global LNG market: Texas and Louisiana. On top of the existing 12.5 Bcf/d of LNG export capacity in the two states, another 11+ Bcf/d of additional capacity is planned by 2028. The good news is that the two major supply basins that will feed this LNG demand — the Permian and the Haynesville — will be growing, but unfortunately not quite as fast as LNG exports. And there’s another complication, namely that the two basins are hundreds of miles from the coastal LNG terminals, meaning that we’ll need to see lots of incremental pipeline capacity developed to move gas to the water.

To understand the dynamics of how these factors and many others will impact flows, capacities and price differentials in the Texas/Louisiana market, you need to model the historical fundamental relationships in the region and then overlay forecasts of supply/demand and the infrastructure projects needed to move gas from production areas to that demand: LNG exports, Mexico exports and new Gulf Coast industrial projects. RBN utilizes a proprietary “Arrow model” to understand natural gas flow/capacity and to make sense out of the evolving market dynamics in Texas and Louisiana.

In this webcast, we’ll examine market areas across Texas and Louisiana, explaining which arrows go where, how the arrow flows are changing, and what all those arrows mean for basis differentials.