Cold weather wasn’t the cause for the above-average stock draw in February as total U.S. heating degree days (HDDs) reported by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) were 12% below the 10-year average for the month and slightly below last year (see dashed black box in chart below). With March also forecast to be warmer than normal, the 2023-24 winter heating season is wrapping up with 7% less HDDs than the 10-year average and 3% below the 2022-23 heating season (dashed red box in chart below). We project that stocks will decline by 54.2 MMbbl for this winter season, compared to only 26.2 MMbbl during the 2022-23 winter season and the 5-year average of 38.2 MMbbl.
Featured Articles
- Analyst Insight
U.S. PROPANE INVENTORIES PLUNGE
The U.S. propane market is abuzz as the massive inventory drawdown in January sparked a rally in Mont Belvieu prices. RBN estimates that total U.S. propane stocks dropped by 20.1 million barrels in January 2024, which was well above the 8 million barrel decline in January 2023 and the 11.3 million barrel 5-year average draw for the month.
- Blog
Heat of the Moment - High Gas Production, Historically Low Heating Demand Keep a Lid on Prices
So far this winter, front-month CME/NYMEX natural gas futures have fallen, risen and fallen again but, until their most recent dip, generally remained within the same $2.30-to-$3.30/MMBtu range where they have been lingering since mid-2023. With production sustaining near-record levels, LNG export volumes down from the winter highs, and temperatures back to normal, the supply of gas remains plentiful — a bearish scenario. In today’s RBN blog, we look at why there’s been a lid on natural gas prices — and the odds that the situation might change before the rapidly-approaching end of the winter season.
- Analyst Insight
EIA Expects Lower Propane Demand For 2023-24 Heating Season
The EIA expect U.S. propane demand for the 2023-2024 heating season to be on par than last year and 3% below the 10-year average demand. The EIA expects that average Heating Degree Days (HDD) for this winter season at ~3,200 will be about the same as last winter and 4% less than the 5-year winter-average.
