U.S. crude oil loadings fell to 3.5 MMb/d last week, a decrease of 391 Mb/d from the prior week, according to this week's Crude Voyager. The four-week moving average (dashed red line in below chart) has now dipped just below 3.8 MMb/d, which is 146 Mb/d below the year-to-date (YTD) average of 3.9 MMb/d. Exports from U.S. Gulf Coast terminals declined across nearly all destinations, with the exception of Louisiana, where loadings more than doubled week on week, increasing from 143 Mb/d to 386 Mb/d.
The number of tankers loading crude oil at U.S. Gulf Coast terminals dropped by four to 27 last week. Among these, six were Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs), three fewer than the previous week. However, eight VLCCs entered the Gulf Coast for loading, five more than the prior week, potentially foreshadowing an uptick in export activity in the coming weeks.
With exports to Asia remaining sluggish, Europe-bound shipments are taking a larger share, accounting for 64% of the declared destinations last week, compared to 47% YTD. Lower exports to Asia are primarily driven by reduced refining demand amid China’s economic slowdown. However, recent reports suggest that China may significantly increase its fiscal stimulus to boost its struggling economy. Additionally, with the Trans Mountain Expansion (TMX) operational, more Canadian oil is being exported from Vancouver’s Westridge terminal, displacing some Canadian supply that previously flowed south to the U.S. Gulf Coast for export, particularly to China.
