The U.S. National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) has updated its latest El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) probabilities, and the bottom line is "A transition from El Niño to ENSO-neutral is likely by April-June 2024 (79% chance), with increasing odds of La Niña developing in June-August 2024 (55% chance)" The ENSO is a weather pattern where sea-surface temperature deviations from normal in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean have extensive impacts around the world, but especially in the Western Hemisphere winter, with deviations above called El Niño and below, La Niña. We are currently in the fifth-strongest El Niño pattern since 1950, but the forecast is for temperatures to almost definitely return to normal, and possibly even go negative, a La Niña event. But what does this actually mean for weather in the U.S.? As you can see from the figures below, El Niño broadly results in a warm northern tier, and wet southern tier, while La Niña broadly results in a warmer, drier southern tier, and a wetter, colder northern tier, with the cold concentrated in the central and western part of the U.S. and Canada.
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