The U.S. injected 13 Bcf of natural gas into storage during the week ended August 30, according to data released by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) on September 5. This was much lower than predictions in the Bloomberg survey of 10 analysts. That survey’s median estimate was 27 Bcf – more than twice as large as the announced injection – and the lowest submission to the survey was 20 Bcf. The front month contract increased significantly on the day of the announcement.
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- Blog
I'm Tore Down - Supply Growth Levels Natural Gas Futures to Near 20-Year Lows
The CME/NYMEX prompt Henry Hub natural gas price yesterday settled at about $2.28/MMBtu, down 40 cents from the summer peak of $2.68 in mid-September. That’s also a long way down from the $3-plus prices seen at this time last year. What’s more, daily prompt-month contract settlements this injection season, from April to present, have averaged the lowest in over 20 years. This, despite the Lower-48 gas storage inventory starting the 2019 storage injection season in April well below year-ago and five-year-average levels. How did we get here? Today, we begin a short series breaking down the supply-demand fundamentals that brought the gas market to its knees in recent months.
- Blog
What's Going On? - Bullish EIA Storage Report Signals a Big Shift in the U.S. Natural Gas Market
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Thursday (June 9) reported a surprisingly bullish 65-Bcf injection for the week ended June 3—that was 8.0 Bcf below our Natgas Billboard estimate and more than 10 Bcf below the Bloomberg industry average assessment. In response, the CME/NYMEX Henry Hub July natural gas contract screamed about 15 cents higher following the report to a settle of $2.617/MMBtu, the highest daily settle for the prompt month in nearly 9 months. Thursday’s gains extended a rally that began on May 31 (2016) just after the July contract rolled to the front of the futures curve. It’s likely the rally was initially spurred by market participants looking to cover their short positions. But in the past week, an increasingly bullish fundamental picture has emerged prompting us to raise our price outlook (in our June 10 NATGAS Billboard report). In today’s blog, we analyze the fundamentals behind rising natural gas prices.
- Analyst Insight
Gas Storage Surplus Continues Decline As Prompt Edges Higher
The gas storage surplus has continued its descent as shown by the most recent EIA announcement, and futures prices have continued to increase in response.
