Tourmaline Oil Corp.'s (TRMLF) 2025 fourth quarter earnings call took place on March 5, 2026, and provided several insights into operational trends and the supply and demand balance in the Western Canadian gas market. While regional prices remain weak, management focused on well performance, infrastructure expansion in northeast British Columbia, and how their portfolio is positioned to respond to tightening fundamentals across North America and global LNG markets.
Production performance remains strong across the company's core Montney assets. Tourmaline reported record production in the fourth quarter of 2025 and again in January 2026, when output averaged roughly 685,000 boe per day before the Peace River High asset sale (see image below).
Drilling programs continue to move toward longer laterals and updated completion designs. Average completed lateral length in northeast BC increased to about 8,400 feet, around 1,100 feet longer than in 2024.
Management noted that they can drill wells but delay completions, which represent about 60% of total well cost, allowing them to manage when new production enters the market. They estimate breakeven gas prices around C$2.00/Mcf in the Alberta Deep Basin, and around C$1.40/Mcf in the BC Montney.
Initial supply of LNG Canada comes from producers directly connected to the facility. As demand increases, additional gas is pulled from the Enbridge system through the Sunset West delivery point, and finally from the NGTL system through the Willow meter. Because the NGTL system feeds volumes last, the broader AECO market tends to see the impact later in the ramp up cycle. Tourmaline noted that flows at the Willow meter have strengthened over the past several weeks, suggesting LNG Canada is beginning to pull incremental supply from NGTL and tighten basin balances.
Tourmaline continues to expand its exposure to global gas markets through LNG exports. The company currently has access to roughly 200 MMcf/d of LNG capacity, which is expected to grow to around 330 MMcf/d over the next several years.
Tourmaline continues expanding its infrastructure footprint in northeast British Columbia. Two major processing projects remain on schedule: the Aitken gas plant, expected in Q4 2026, and the Groundbirch Manirias facility, expected in Q4 2027. The company has also completed a liquids hub near the Aitken complex, along with associated pipelines to integrate liquids handling across the region.
Tourmaline plans to terminate discretionary deep cut processing contracts in the Alberta Deep Basin as they expire. Management indicated that ethane recovery economics remain persistently weak because abundant ethane content in Alberta gas means any price improvement quickly attracts additional recovery, keeping the market soft.
Tourmaline also expanded its storage position through a long term agreement at AltaGas' Dimsdale facility in Alberta, described by management as a high deliverability reservoir. The agreement provides 6 Bcf of storage starting in April 2026, increasing to 10 Bcf by mid 2027. This summer the company expects to be able to inject approximately 67 MMcf/d into the facility, with that rate roughly tripling by the summer of 2027, making storage an increasingly meaningful tool for managing price exposure.
Management quantified the potential demand from gas fired power generation and data center development, estimating that behind-the-fence co-location projects and on-grid data center developments could represent a minimum of 1.5 Bcf/d of incremental in-basin gas consumption by 2030. This would arrive ahead of any LNG Canada Phase 2 contribution.
Overall, management's comments suggest that while pricing remains weak today, the combination of declining local supply growth, advancing LNG export ramp, normalizing West Coast demand, growing storage optionality, and emerging data center load point toward meaningfully tighter fundamentals over the medium term across Western Canada and connected export markets.
