In the latest edition of the NATGAS Permian report, the Permian supply forecast and near-term historical revisions incorporate the latest available data from Novi Labs. The updated forecast combines Novi Labs' AI-driven energy intelligence and upstream analytics with RBN's assessment of current market conditions and planned pipeline buildout. Last week, Permian production ranged from 21.9 Bcf/d to 22.3 Bcf/d, averaging 22.1 Bcf/d, which is down slightly from the week prior. With the Gulf Coast Express expansion now online, the basin has some breathing room which has allowed prices in the basin to rebound above zero. So far, despite the new takeaway capacity online, production has been relatively flat, as shown in the orange line in the graph below. However, the rig count is up by 15 since the end of March indicating production growth is coming.
Source: RBN NATGAS Permian, Novi Labs, Wood Mackenzie
Outflows from the Permian were slightly higher last week, driven by higher outflows to the East. Outflows to the East averaged 13.3 Bcf/d, up 0.2 Bcf/d week-on-week. Reported flows on Gulf Coast Express were up last week, particularly deliveries to Tennessee Gas Pipeline in the Agua Dulce area, which was one of the new points that was placed into service with the expansion on June 9. Outflows on the other greenfield pipelines to the East are strong as well, although reported flows on Whistler, which also goes to Agua Dulce, have been down slightly since the Gulf Coast Express expansion came online.
