Over the past six weeks, the NGL-to-crude oil price ratio has climbed from 0.34 to 0.48 (blue line, purple dashed oval in the right-hand graph), supported by strong exports, tightening inventories and preparations for winter demand. That is a sharp departure from the 2026 year-to-date average of just 0.37 (left-hand graph, red dot), only modestly above the 20-year low of 0.26 recorded in 2023.
The ratio measures the weighted-average price of a typical basket of Mont Belvieu NGLs relative to WTI crude at Cushing, providing a gauge of NGL value versus crude oil.
The recent 0.48 ratio understates the strength in heavier NGLs. Ethane accounts for 42% of the representative NGL barrel, giving it considerable influence over the overall ratio. Yet ethane prices have risen only about half as much, in percentage terms, as propane and butanes, reflecting ethane’s close relationship with relatively weak natural gas prices.
Strip out ethane and the shift is more pronounced. The C3+ ratio, covering propane and heavier NGLs, has jumped from 0.52 to 0.72 over the same six weeks (green line, red dashed oval in the right-hand graph). With propane heating demand and winter gasoline blending of normal butane picking up, further gains are likely, improving NGL values for producers and midstream companies.
