The EIA reported a 529-Mbbl draw in total U.S. propane/propylene inventories for the week ended October 16, lowering stocks to 105.8 MMbbl (red line in the first chart below). Stocks have drawn every week since the week ended September 25, when a 1.8-MMbbl build marked the last increase and lifted inventories to 109.6 MMbbl. The 3.8-MMbbl decline since then is the steepest for this period in at least 10 years (red bar in the second chart below). The closest comparison, 2020’s 3.6-MMbbl decline, was driven mainly by strong domestic demand. Inventories remain 2.7 MMbbl, or 3%, above both the same week in 2025 (blue line) and the five-year maximum, and 12.3 MMbbl, or 13%, above the five-year average (green line), but the cushion is thinning fast. Three weeks ago, stocks were 6.3 MMbbl above last year and 17.7 MMbbl above the five-year average.
Exports are doing most of the pulling (see the exports chart below), and the drawdown is concentrated on the Gulf Coast, where PADD 3 stocks are down 4.5 MMbbl from a record 70.4 MMbbl set the week ended September 25, more than the national decline. U.S. exports have averaged 2.16 MMb/d over the past three weeks, 192 Mb/d above the same period last year. That is about 4 MMbbl of additional propane leaving the country, more than the entire 3.8-MMbbl decline. Since August, exports have averaged 217 Mb/d above last year. This week’s 2.03 MMb/d was above the previous five-year maximum of 1.92 MMb/d for the week. Production averaged 2.9 MMb/d, 60 Mb/d above last year, offsetting part of the export gain, while product supplied averaged 40 Mb/d more than a year ago. Last year, stocks kept building into late October, reaching 105.7 MMbbl in the week ended October 24, 2025. A total U.S. inventory draw larger than 165 Mbbl next week would push stocks below year-ago levels for the first time since the week ended October 10, 2025, with heating season still ahead.
