EIA Will Delay Data Releases From November 8-10

The weekly estimate of commercial crude oil inventories in the U.S. Department of Energy’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report — and the week-on-week change in those inventories — are among the most closely watched numbers in the oil sector. And for good reason. After all, the numbers help the market assess shifts in the supply/demand balance, a critical consideration in determining crude oil prices and signaling the need for more — or less — imports, exports, and of course production. In 2017, with a mandated drawdown in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, it is now important to track weekly withdrawals from the SPR as well because of the effect they can have on commercial stocks. Today we discuss recent and planned SPR drawdowns and their effect on the supply/demand balance and crude oil prices.

Every Wednesday energy markets eagerly anticipate the EIA Weekly Petroleum Supply Report release. Its contents frequently sway the market. Last Wednesday the biggest surprise was a 500 Mb/d reduction in crude imports. Today we start a two part analysis of EIA crude inventory data.

Last Thursday (January 31, 2013) a high frequency trading event about 400 milliseconds before the scheduled EIA Storage data release set off a frenzy of selling in the NYMEX Natural Gas futures market. Some analysts believe that the storage report could have been leaked. Others blamed computer timing issues.  These events resurrected ghosts of EIA storage numbers past and inspired our examination of these developments in the context of the evolution of high frequency trading in energy markets.