The Arrow Model, as we refer to it, is RBN’s proprietary analytical framework that organizes the Texas and Louisiana natural gas markets into pipeline “corridors” that can be used to assess changes in regional inflows, outflows and flows within each state via groups of pipes that serve similar markets from comparable supply sources. These pipeline corridors (blue arrows in map below) are aggregations of pipelines connecting 19 market hubs (black dots) that are essential to the analysis — some within Texas and Louisiana and others outside the two states. We also identify the six LNG corridors (green arrows) through which gas exits the gulf coast as LNG exports.
The attributes of each arrow include capacity, historical flows, projected flows, constraints, and other factors. The net flows for each arrow move in the direction indicated by the arrow, but they can and do flip around over time when modeled market conditions dictate.
Contact us to learn how you can leverage RBN expertise and the Arrow Model for precision forecasting and strategic decision-making. For more information, fill out the form below or contact TJ Braziel at tjbraziel@rbnenergy.com.
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Recent Events
Follow Your Arrow: RBN’s Arrow Model Points the Way For Gas Market
David Braziel & Jen SnyderIn this webcast, we examined market areas across Texas and Louisiana, explaining which arrows go where, how the arrow flows are changing, and what all those arrows mean for basis differentials. This is a Backstage Pass exclusive event. Get premium access for $110/month and cancel anytime! Watch The Replay
Recent Blogs
Show Me The Way - Methane Intensity And The Sourcing Of Natural Gas For LNG Exports
There’s already so much involved in developing new LNG export capacity: lining up offtakers, securing federal approvals, sourcing natural gas, developing pipelines ... the list goes on. Now, with the increased emphasis on minimizing emissions of methane, the folks involved in LNG exports are also wary of the methane intensity (MI) of their feedgas, which depends not only on the steps that gas producers, pipeline companies and LNG exporters themselves take to mitigate methane emissions but also on where the gas comes from. But with so many new export terminals coming online, gas flows are sure to change, right? So how can you possibly assess what those flow changes will mean for the MI of gas over time? In today’s RBN blog, we discuss the role that MI may play in sourcing natural gas for LNG.
Follow Your Arrow - How Plaquemines LNG Will Impact Gas Availability in Southeast Louisiana
As mightily as U.S. LNG exports have impacted global trade dynamics, so have U.S. natural gas flows been reshaped by the pull toward Gulf Coast export terminals. The next new terminal on deck is Venture Global’s enormous Plaquemines facility in Louisiana, which could begin taking feedgas as early as late fall 2024 and will eventually ramp up to more than 2.6 Bcf/d. For Southeast Louisiana, home to a massive industrial corridor along the Mississippi River as well as the U.S. natural gas benchmark Henry Hub, the introduction of such a huge source of demand will change how gas flows into and out of the region — with knock-on effects across the Gulf Coast. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll turn once again to our Arrow Model to help illuminate what the path forward may look like.
My Aim is True - New LNG Export Capacity Upends Texas/Louisiana Natural Gas Fundamentals
Big changes are coming to the new epicenter of the global LNG market: Texas and Louisiana. On top of the existing 12.5 Bcf/d of LNG export capacity in the two states, another 11+ Bcf/d of additional capacity is planned by 2028. The good news is that the two major supply basins that will feed this LNG demand — the Permian and the Haynesville — will be growing, but unfortunately not quite as fast as LNG exports beyond 2024. And there’s another complication, namely that the two basins are hundreds of miles from the coastal LNG terminals, meaning that we’ll need to see lots of incremental pipeline capacity developed to move gas to the water.
