Posts from Lindsay Schneider

Wednesday, 02/05/2020

The development of Appalachia’s Marcellus and Utica shales has flipped regional natural gas prices in the U.S. Northeast from their long-time premiums to Henry Hub, to trading at a significant discount and, in the process, reversed inbound gas flows, including from Eastern Canada. But there is an exception: from an entry point at the northern edge of New York, the Iroquois Gas Transmission pipeline is still importing Canadian gas supply nearly year-round to help meet local demand, despite its proximity to Marcellus/Utica production via other Northeast pipelines. This has kept prices along the Iroquois pipeline system at a premium to the other points in the region. And with the new, 1,100-MW Cricket Valley Energy Center power plant due online this spring, Iroquois prices are likely to strengthen. Today, we examine the dynamics driving Iroquois prices and gas flows.

Wednesday, 01/08/2020

After showing relative strength through most of the fall, prices at the UK’s National Balancing Point (NBP) natural gas benchmark collapsed by more than $1/MMBtu in December and have kept falling, and Asia’s Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) index followed suit to some degree. Nevertheless, U.S. LNG export cargoes were at record highs in December as additional liquefaction and export capacity came online last month, including the first LNG export cargoes from the Elba Liquefaction project as well as Freeport LNG’s Train 2. Moreover, U.S. shipments are expected to climb further in the New Year as still more liquefaction trains are completed. While the global price spreads haven’t deterred U.S. exports, they, along with shipping costs, do influence export economics and cargo destinations. Today, we wrap up this series with a look at how LNG export costs interact with global price spreads and impact cargo destinations.

Thursday, 12/12/2019

U.S. LNG cargoes’ ability to reach different destinations has become increasingly important for the global market as more liquefaction trains continue to come online, oversupply conditions worsen, and international price spreads have shrunk. Earlier this week, Freeport LNG’s first train began commercial service, marking the sixth U.S. liquefaction and export facility to start commercial operations. About 30% of U.S. long-term contracts for currently operating or commissioning liquefaction trains are held by global portfolio players — i.e., offtakers with large international portfolios and the ability to shift cargoes around the world as prices move. And destination flexibility doesn’t end there, as the other types of offtakers also have shown an increased willingness to divert or even re-sell cargoes in the spot market to better take advantage of shifting price spreads. Today, we continue a series on U.S. LNG export trends, this time focusing on how global prices impact cargo destinations.

Sunday, 12/08/2019

New U.S. liquefaction trains and LNG export terminals are entering an increasingly oversupplied global market in which international LNG prices are well below where they stood a year and a half ago and price spreads from the U.S. have collapsed. That hasn’t deterred U.S. LNG exports from increasing with each new liquefaction train and capacity contract that goes into effect, as long-term offtake contracts, which anchor more than 90% of the U.S. liquefaction capacity, have made cargo liftings relatively insensitive to global prices. However, the destinations for U.S.-sourced LNG have been in flux based on the types of offtakers holding capacity on newly commercialized trains as well as shifting global prices. Today, we continue a series on cargoes and destinations, this time focusing on how contracts impact cargo destinations.

Tuesday, 10/29/2019

New U.S. liquefaction trains and export terminals coming online are entering an increasingly oversupplied, lower-priced global market. Even so, domestic LNG exports have continued to climb with each new train that is commissioned and commercialized. Feedgas deliveries to the terminals hit an all-time high well above 7 Bcf/d this past week and have stayed up there the past several days. That’s because more than 90% of the operating or commissioning liquefaction capacity is underpinned by long-term Sales and Purchase Agreements (SPAs) that keep cargoes flowing. Planned facilities still under construction are contracted at a similar level, and we expect that to keep U.S. LNG exports on a growth trajectory that’s in line with the commissioning and construction schedules of new plants, to a large extent regardless of international price trends. Today, we continue a series on U.S. LNG export cargoes and destinations, this time with a focus on the existing capacity contracts for operational and commissioning terminals.

Wednesday, 10/02/2019

U.S. LNG exports have climbed from zero to about 6 Bcf/d in less than four years. This year to date alone, three new liquefaction trains have come online at three different terminals with an additional train at Freeport LNG and Elba Liquefaction’s first four mini-trains in the commissioning process. The completion of these and other projects around the globe, particularly in Australia, have led to an oversupplied global market, made worse this year by a mild winter and high natural gas storage levels in Europe, and nuclear restarts and slowing demand growth in Asia. These dynamics sent international prices spiraling downward in recent months. Then, in September, prices briefly spiked up as regulatory news out of Europe suggested higher global gas demand. In the midst of all this market turmoil, U.S. export cargoes have remained unfazed. But the shifting fundamentals have played a role in where U.S. cargoes ultimately end up. Today, we begin a series looking into how liquefaction capacity contracts and international prices affect cargo destinations from U.S. LNG terminals.

Wednesday, 04/03/2019

Ten weeks after an explosion crippled a key natural gas takeaway route out of the Marcellus/Utica, the capacity finally has been fully restored. Texas Eastern Transmission two days ago said it’s lifting all restrictions on the affected section of pipe. The outage began on January 21 and partial service resumed eight days later, but TETCO’s Northeast production receipts during the event averaged about 700 MMcf/d lower than usual and the line’s flows to the Gulf Coast were cut by 30-40%. That, along with two severe polar-vortex periods in January that overlapped with the outage, caused a reshuffling of flows across other pipelines in the region. Today, we wrap up this series with a look at the implications of the outage on the Northeast gas market and what to expect now that it’s ended.

Tuesday, 03/26/2019

The second wave of North American LNG export projects is officially underway. LNG Canada took final investment decision (FID) last October and would be the first large-scale LNG export facility in Canada. Golden Pass followed in February, marking the beginning of the next round of LNG export build on the U.S. Gulf Coast. Sabine Pass Train 6 is expected to get the green light any day, and at least eight more projects are targeting FID this year. But how likely are these projects to go ahead? And what exactly does it take for a project to reach that financial milestone? Today, we begin a two-part blog series on the factors affecting U.S. and Canadian LNG export projects’ prospects for taking FID and our view on the projects making progress towards joining the second wave of LNG exports.

Thursday, 02/28/2019

In a world where Marcellus/Utica natural gas supplies and Gulf Coast gas demand are increasingly interdependent, what would happen if flows along a critical route connecting the two regions were disrupted? The market caught a glimpse of that on January 21, when an explosion on Texas Eastern Transmission’s 30-inch line in Noble County, OH, shut down flows through its Berne compressor, which serves as a key gateway for Gulf Coast-bound gas out of Appalachia. Partial service was restored a few days later, but a chunk of the capacity remains offline as repairs are completed, and southbound volumes are running at 60% of what they were prior to the outage. Not too long ago, an outage severing Northeast producers’ access to a major takeaway route to the Gulf would have hammered Northeast supply prices, even during the peak winter demand months. But as expansion projects have vastly improved pipeline connectivity within Appalachia and takeaway capacity out of the region, they’ve transformed how some of those legacy long-haul pipelines function and even the role they play in the market. The TETCO outage provides a glimpse into what that will mean for the Northeast and its downstream markets. In today’s blog, we begin a series looking at the implications of a well-connected Marcellus/Utica, starting with a recap of the TETCO event and its immediate impacts on southbound flows.