Guyana’s rise as a crude oil producer in recent years can only be described as meteoric. If forecasts from some of the most respected international agencies pan out, the South American country’s output may soon rival some of the world’s biggest offshore producers. But the developments there are not without some controversy: they’re the centerpiece of a dispute over the proposed Chevron-Hess merger, while neighboring Venezuela claims that much of Guyana’s oil reserves are actually within Venezuelan territory. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll take a deep dive into Guyana’s production, examining its grades, quality and export flows as it transforms into a major global supplier.
LLS
Tuesday, 6/25/2024
The Light Louisiana Sweet (LLS) crude market has evolved in recent years, due largely to the reversal of the Capline pipeline as well as limited production growth from the offshore fields that contribute to the LLS market. Yet the LLS premium against other U.S. grades remains strong, a sign that refiners aren’t ready to give up on it just yet, given its attractive yields of high-value transportation fuels like gasoline, jet fuel and diesel. In today’s RBN blog, we will revisit LLS and examine its production and demand outlook.
Sunday, 11/13/2022
Infrastructure constraints in the energy sector come in all shapes and sizes, and don’t think for a second that they only involve pipelines. For many producers of crude oil, refined products and other liquids, the Mississippi River is a critically important conduit for barging commodities to market. Lately though, water levels on sections of the river have been near historic lows, reducing both the volume of liquids that each barge can carry and the number of barges the Mississippi can handle. Among other things, the low water situation has been putting a squeeze on condensate producers in the “wet” Marcellus/Utica, who depend on barges to transport a significant portion of their superlight crude oil down the Ohio and Mississippi rivers to refineries and for blending into Light Louisiana Sweet (LLS). In today’s RBN blog, we discuss the situation.
Sunday, 3/17/2019
Last year, the impending implementation of International Maritime Organization’s rule mandating the use of lower-sulfur marine fuels starting January 1, 2020, widened the price spread between rule-compliant 0.5%-sulfur bunker and the 3.5%-sulfur marine fuel that has been a shipping industry mainstay. Traders’ thinking was that demand for high-sulfur bunker would evaporate in the run-up to IMO 2020, as the new rule is known. But since early January, the spread between low- and high-sulfur fuel at the Gulf Coast has narrowed from nearly $11/bbl to less than $2/bbl. The culprit is a shortage of heavy-sour crude caused by a number of factors. Today, we begin a two-part series on low-sulfur vs. high-sulfur fuel and crude values as IMO 2020 approaches.
We Gotta Get Out of This Place - Midland Crude Production, Takeaway Capacity and Price Differentials
Sunday, 2/11/2018
Permian crude oil production continues to march steadily upward, headed toward 3.0 MMb/d sometime in the next few months. Most of the recent growth responsible for pushing total U.S. output past 10 MMb/d has come from increases in Permian volumes. Pipeline capacity out of the super-hot play is on the ragged edge of maxing out, and a myriad of new projects to relieve capacity constraints are in the works. Why then has the price differential between Midland, TX, and the Gulf Coast dropped over the past few weeks? Why did the Brent vs. WTI/Cushing spread crater? And what does this all mean for Midland-to-Gulf Coast transport deals getting struck for $2.00/bbl or less? Today, we look at these developments, try to make sense out of the Permian/Midland crude oil market, and consider what the future might hold for West Texas barrels moving to the Gulf Coast.
Thursday, 11/16/2017
Two months ago, U.S. crude oil exports skyrocketed, and they have averaged 1.6 MMb/d since mid-September, driven by a Brent-WTI differential above $6/bbl — higher than it has been in over two years. At one point, the steep differential and surging exports were blamed on Hurricane Harvey, then on renewed OPEC discipline and a political risk premium associated with a shakeup in the Saudi hierarchy. But the reality is that these factors are only small pieces of the equation, with pipeline transportation bottlenecks from Cushing and the Permian down to the Gulf Coast being much more important factors in the widening Brent-WTI price spread. Today, we begin a blog series examining how these pipeline capacity constraints triggered the expanded price differential, and how the differential then enabled high crude oil export volumes.
Wednesday, 9/20/2017
Since last winter, the price gap between light crude oil and heavy crude — otherwise known as the light-heavy differential — has narrowed considerably. In February, the price difference between Louisiana Light Sweet crude (LLS) and heavy Maya crude on the Gulf Coast was almost $10/bbl, providing an advantage to refiners who have invested in cokers and other equipment that allows them to run a heavier crude slate. But since June Maya has on average sold for only about $5/bbl less than LLS. Today we examine the shrinking price gap between light and heavy crude and its effect on coking and cracking margins.
Tuesday, 4/19/2016
A year ago (April 2015) the price spread between Light Louisiana Sweet (LLS) the St. James, LA benchmark light crude and Permian West Texas Intermediate (WTI) delivered to Houston was roughly $2.50/Bbl. In the first quarter of 2016 – following the end of the crude export ban and the crash of crude prices below $40.bbl – that spread narrowed to 30 cents/Bbl. This price differential change has thrown a wrench into traditional Gulf Coast price relationships that encouraged the flow of crude east from Houston to Louisiana. Further changes are expected as pipeline projects due to be completed in the next two years will deliver Bakken and Permian crude direct to St. James. Today we wrap up our series on St. James with a look at changing crude prices and flows.
Sunday, 4/03/2016
The St. James, LA crude trading hub provides feedstock to 2.6 MMb/d of regional refining capacity as well as refineries in the Midwest. St. James is also an important distribution hub for crude from North Dakota, South Texas, the Gulf of Mexico and onshore Louisiana as well as imports arriving at the Louisiana Offshore Oil Port (LOOP). Crude storage and midstream infrastructure at St. James has been expanding in recent years as the trading hub handles larger volumes of domestic production. Today we begin a new series looking at infrastructure and crude pricing at St. James.
Monday, 1/04/2016
Following the news that regulations restricting the export of U.S. crude had been lifted, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rallied to a slight premium over its international counterpart Brent for 6 days at the end of December 2015 – apparently leveling the playing field between the two rival light sweet grades. Is this the green light for a surge in U.S. crude exports? Not hardly. In fact, it is the other way around. Prices for WTI need to be well below Brent for exports to make economic sense and – according to the futures market – that is not happening anytime soon. Today we conclude our analysis of the Brent/WTI price relationship with a look forward to 2016.
Monday, 8/03/2015
Yesterday (August 3, 2015) Brent crude closed under $50/Bbl for the first time since January 2015. At that price expensive crude-by-rail (CBR) freight costs to the East Coast leave Bakken producers with netbacks not much over $30/Bbl. Yet CBR shipments to the East Coast were still over 400 Mb/d in May 2015 according to the Energy Information Administration (EIA). By 2017 there should be adequate capacity to get all Bakken crude to market by pipeline. But direct pipeline competition against rail to the East Coast is not expected until at least 2020. Today we look at the future of East Coast CBR.
Sunday, 7/26/2015
Western Canadian Select (WCS) – the benchmark for Canadian crude sold at Hardisty in Alberta fetched just $32.29/Bbl on Friday (July 24, 2015) down 60% from $81.34/Bbl a year ago in July 2014. That year has seen big changes in the U.S. oil market with drilling rig cutbacks and declining new production rates. The challenges for Canadian producers have not changed much in the short term – with transport capacity to market still top of the list. Trouble is that every time transport congestion occurs it pushes price discounts higher and lowers producer returns. Today we discuss the relationship between Western Canadian crude production and prices.
Sunday, 7/05/2015
U.S refiners have been processing a lot of crude so far this summer and utilization rates remain high. Crude production has leveled off and is expected by the Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) Short Term Energy Outlook to decline slightly during the second half of 2015. But the early summer market sentiment that drove crude prices up to $60/Bbl on the back of these fundamentals appears to have lost steam. Today we conclude our analysis of short term crude price prospects.
Tuesday, 6/16/2015
Average margins for a Gulf Coast condensate splitter have been about $5/Bbl better in 2015 than they were in 2014 but are still about $4.75/Bbl worse than an equivalent Gulf Coast 3-2-1 crack spread. The economics of condensate splitters have also yet to be tested in an environment if – as could happen later this year – crude production begins to decline. Are condensate splitters a better investment than just exporting lightly processed condensate under relaxed export regulations? Two companies considering projects seem to have reached different conclusions recently. Today we continue our update on splitter projects with a look at economics.
Thursday, 6/04/2015
Since the start of the shale oil boom in 2011 crack spread margins for Midwest refiners have averaged about $23/Bbl. Once written off refineries on the East Coast have averaged $16/Bbl this year so far (2015) and California refiners are currently enjoying average $24/Bbl crack spreads. Refinery utilization at the Gulf Coast has averaged close to 90% for the past 4 years and 92% in the Midwest. Today we review buoyant margins and operating levels at U.S. refineries.