The bases are loaded for another 2 MMb/d of pipeline capacity to bring additional crude supplies to the Texas Gulf Coast by the end of 2014. The majority of that payload will likely be light sweet crude from tight oil formations, a.k.a., shale. As the flood of crude headed to Texas passed through the Midwest over the past two years, prices at Cushing and points north were heavily discounted versus coastal markets. Now the discount action has moved to the Gulf Coast where light sweet crude imports have been pushed out. Today we look at the impact of the changing supply position on crude price differentials.
Brent
Sunday, 12/08/2013
Throughout the three year-long disruption of the US crude oil distribution system caused by rising domestic and Canadian production trying to find a path through the Midwest, the Seaway pipeline reversal project has been a market bellwether of progress to unwind the congestion. In 2Q 2014 the final phase will come online - opening up an additional 450 Mb/d capacity between Cushing and Houston. As the Seaway project has been built out, the crude surplus in the Midwest appears to have moved to the Gulf Coast. Today we detail the impact of Seaway Phase 3 on Gulf Coast crude supplies.
Thursday, 12/05/2013
Could the US end up exporting 700 MMb/d of crude to Canada by the end of the decade? Despite static domestic refinery demand and a growing production surplus, Canadian imports of crude increased this year. How could that be? The reason for this apparent anomaly is that East Coast Canadian producers are getting better prices exporting their crude anywhere but the US rather than competing at home against cheaper imports from South Texas and North Dakota. Today we explain some unintended consequences of the US crude export regulations.
Wednesday, 10/30/2013
Bakken producer wellhead netbacks now favor shipping crude to the East Coast by rail. That is because Brent crude prices are trading more than $13/Bbl above WTI and nearly $11/Bbl higher than Light Louisiana Sweet crude at the Gulf Coast (October 30, 2013). Loading data from North Dakota indicates that volumes being shipped by rail have returned to levels not seen since April although less crude is going to the Gulf Coast. Today we conclude our two part analysis of Bakken producer transport options.
Monday, 10/28/2013
With Brent premiums hovering close to $10/Bbl versus West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude in the past month, the netbacks for Bakken producers shipping crude by rail to the East or West Coast are higher than they are for pipeline movements to Cushing or the Gulf Coast. Netbacks represent the crude price at the destination less transportation costs back to the wellhead. Today we show how the market destinations with the highest netbacks have reversed since July.
Wednesday, 10/23/2013
WTI for prompt delivery closed $10.94/Bbl below Brent on Wednesday (October 23, 2013). Brent prices are disconnected from WTI and Light Louisiana Sweet because the Gulf Coast is awash with light sweet crude. West Coast crude prices on the other hand are supposed to march to a different tune – isolated from new shale and Canadian crude supplies and thus expected to continue tracking international Brent. But ANS prices on the West Coast have fallen to more than $5/Bbl below Brent in the past 2 weeks and seem to be tracking WTI. Is this just a temporary aberration or could it be signaling another step change in the road to US crude independence? Today we take a closer look at what’s going on.
Sunday, 10/20/2013
The Brent premium to West Texas Intermediate (WTI) on Friday (October 18, 2013) was $9.14/Bbl – indicating a new disconnect between US crude prices and international levels. Unlike last time a big Brent premium to WTI opened up in 2010 the price of Light Louisiana Sweet at the Gulf Coast is still tracking with WTI rather than following Brent. This suggests that the US Gulf Coats is long crude at the moment and that imports of Brent priced crude are not required. Today we discuss the current Gulf Coast crude market.
Tuesday, 9/24/2013
The latest North Dakota crude production estimates for July 2013 show a year on year increase of 200 Mb/d to a new record of 874 Mb/d. If you add Montana and South Dakota production (80 Mb/d) the Williston Basin is getting close to 1 MMb/d. After going through a famine of pipeline capacity in 2012, producers turned to rail to get their barrels to market. By the end of 2013 there will be 1.5 MMb/d of rail and pipeline takeaway capacity - more than enough to handle expanding output. Today we review the latest Bakken numbers.
Wednesday, 9/11/2013
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude prices reached $110.53/Bbl last Friday, their highest daily settlement since May 2011 - in response to expectations of a US military attack on Syria. The sudden prospect of a Russian brokered peaceful solution to the Syrian chemical weapons crisis prompted a $3/Bbl fall in WTI prices since then. These wild price gyrations in response to events far away continue to impact US crude markets so long as we are major importers. Today we look at how the Syria crisis affects the US oil market.
Sunday, 8/18/2013
The recent dramatic narrowing of the WTI discount to Brent to around $3/Bbl (from $23/Bbl in February) took place at the same time as Cushing, OK crude inventories fell by 23 percent. Both these events have been trumpeted as signaling an end to the three-year logjam preventing landlocked crude supplies from reaching the Gulf Coast by pipeline. Yet the turnaround in Cushing inventories owes as much to declining inflows to Cushing from Canada and West Texas as it does to a flood of crude to the Gulf Coast. An uptick in refinery consumption in the Midwest and falling prices on the CME NYMEX West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures market (backwardation) have also played an important part in the drop in Cushing inventories. Today we look at what lies behind the crude inventory slide.
Wednesday, 8/14/2013
Last week (August 7, 2013) the 3-2-1 crack spread based on NYMEX CME crude and refined product prices that is seen as a proxy for the performance of US refinery margins, reached a two year low. The 3-2-1 crack has fallen 56 percent this year from its high in March. At the same time refineries are still processing crude like there’s no tomorrow – at over 90 percent of capacity. Can the party continue? Today we peak through the cracks to uncover what’s going on.
Monday, 7/22/2013
The Brent premium to WTI has traded as wide as $23/Bbl this year but was down to 2 cnts/Bbl on Friday July 19, 2013. At one point during trading nearby WTI prices rose above Brent – the first time that’s happened in three years. Yesterday (July 22, 2013) WTI August expired at 106.91 - $1.14 lower than Brent September. Today we look at why the spread has narrowed so rapidly and whether it will stay that way.
Sunday, 7/07/2013
The West Texas Intermediate (WTI) discount to Brent has been as wide as $27/Bbl in the past two years and traded at an average of $17.50/Bbl in 2012. Since February this year the spread has narrowed 80 percent to less than $5/Bbl – closing at $4.55/Bbl on Friday (July 5, 2013). Surging WTI prices are over $100/Bbl for the first time since May 2012.Today we look at what is behind the recent sudden narrowing in the spread.
Thursday, 6/13/2013
Three years ago in June 2010, prices for the international benchmark Brent crude and the US domestic benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) traded within $1/Bbl of each other. Then in August 2010, WTI began to trade at a discount to Brent that widened out as far as $28/Bbl in November 2011 and averaged $17.50/Bbl in 2012. Since May 2013 the WTI discount to Brent has narrowed to an average $8.50/Bbl. Today we wonder if it’s time to tie a yellow ribbon round a West Texas oak tree.
Wednesday, 6/12/2013
Narrowing price differentials between inland crudes tied to West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and coastal crudes tied to Brent are resulting in a move away from rail shipments and back towards pipelines by producers in North Dakota. The switch away from rail is already having an impact on the lease rates for rail tank cars. Which could call into question the huge backlog of orders for new tank cars. Today we ponder the possibility of a bust in crude-by-rail shipments.