Topics in Module 1 Include:
Module 1.1 — New Market Realities: Current Market Conditions
Presenter: Rusty Braziel
The U.S. energy market is much different than it was in 2013 when we held the first School of Energy. Back then, there was no LNG or crude exports, most natural gas flowed from east-to-west, crude by rail was growing, and the Permian was just starting to show up on the radar. Today’s market issues revolve around the need to export to solve supply-and-demand balances, the push for renewable energy, and the scale of commodities. We start things off with a discussion about production growth, growing infrastructure, and more factors affecting current market conditions.
Module 1.2 — History of the Shale Revolution; Domino Effect
Presenter: Rusty Braziel
The Domino Effect is the framework that RBN uses to make sense of the changes in the energy market caused by the Shale Revolution. In the early 2000s, natural gas production in the U.S. was declining until George Mitchell cracked the code on shale drilling. That first domino started a chain of events that has led the U.S. to become a leader in energy production. In this module, we go over the history of the Domino Effect and discuss the dominoes that are still falling today.
Module 1.3 — Addressing Energy Transition and Future Demand
Presenter: David Braziel
Energy markets function based on economic laws of supply and demand. But what’s happening now with energy transition initiatives defies those laws. That’s because these initiatives are being driven by rules and regulations rather than economics. That presents a huge potential for market disruptions and other unintended consequences. But, like it or not, changes are coming to the industry. So how can we prepare for what’s coming? In this module, we discuss the energy transition initiatives and how they will affect the market going forward.
Module 1.4 — School of Energy Overview
Presenter: T.J. Braziel
In this presentation, we take you through the fundamental aspects of the crude oil market. The presentation starts with an outline of the physical and financial value chains, illustrating how oil is produced and refined, then details the intricate processes behind trading and pricing. After a comprehensive overview of U.S. and global crude oil production and demand, we shift the focus to domestic refinery capacities, highlighting significant regional differences and refineries’ adaptations over time. The presentation also addresses the complexities of crude oil quality, price variability, and the significant role of imports and exports, particularly influenced by U.S. refineries’ technical capabilities. Storage capacities and the logistics of crude oil transportation are discussed next, showing crucial hubs and flows throughout the U.S. Finally, the session wraps up with RBN’s forecast on the future supply and demand, projecting growth in production and exports, concluding a robust primer on crude oil fundamentals.
Module 1.5 — Fundamentals of Fundamentals: NGLS and Modeling
Presenter: Rusty Braziel
Understanding energy markets is not just about natural gas, crude oil, and NGLs — it’s about how the three commodity groups are linked. The interdependencies of the three commodities have never been more important than they are now. In this module, we discuss the fundamentals of commodities, from pricing and trading hubs to basic supply and demand. This module also focuses on NGL fundamentals, NGL products, and how the market has changed over the years.
Module 1.6 — Understanding Energy Fundamental Models
Presenter: David Braziel
What makes RBN’s School of Energy unique is that attendees are taken beyond the conceptual level down into the nitty-gritty of modeling. Rather than trying to keep our methods secret, we teach you how to use our models with hands-on instruction and explain how we use them for market analysis. This section serves as an introduction to the models that are interwoven throughout the course. Our goal is to show how models are useful and help you connect the dots to specific business problems.
Module 1.7 — Lab Model: Propane-to-Crude Ratio
Presenter: David Braziel
One metric that we keep our thumb on at RBN is propane’s relationship to crude. Propane traders tend to focus a lot on the relative price of propane; that is, propane as a percentage of crude oil, rather than just the outright price. That's because the cheaper propane is relative to crude oil — as has been the trend this year — the more propane gets absorbed by the petrochemical industry, both here and in markets for U.S. propane exports. In this introductory model, we introduce the propane-to-crude ratio and discuss how RBN lays out our model spreadsheets, as well as some Excel shortcuts.
