The long-term contract has been the cornerstone of the global LNG industry since its inception. Such contracts between upstream LNG producers and downstream utility companies have provided buyers with security of supply over a protracted period while guaranteeing producers sufficient income to justify the investment in export facilities and shipping fleets. But times are changing, with significant LNG volumes under long-term contracts scheduled to expire by 2031. In today’s RBN blog, we look at the potential implications for LNG buyers and producers around the world, the options available to them, and how their choices may impact LNG commercial models.
The long-term LNG contract, typically running for 20-25 years, has allowed producers, over time, to expand production — all LNG plants have spare capacity — with the result that a short-term market has developed, generally defined as contracts of four years or less. In 2023, short-term volumes of LNG — which includes cargoes that were transacted on a spot basis — accounted for 35% of global LNG imports, or 141 million metric tons (MT), compared to only 19%, or 41.6 million MT, in 2010. The increase in short-term trade is a reflection of the increasing commoditization of LNG. Although the long-term contract remains, for now, the major medium for contracting LNG supply, accounting for 260 million MT (34.4 Bcf/d) of 2023 imports, more than 100 million metric tons per annum (MMtpa; 13.2 Bcf/d) of global long-term contracts are due to expire by 2031, as shown in Figure 1 below.
Figure 1. Long-Term LNG Contract Terminations Through 2031. Source: GIIGNL
We should emphasize that the impact of this trend, should it continue, would affect U.S. LNG contracts at a later date. The first U.S. LNG export facility, Cheniere’s Sabine Pass in Louisiana, shipped its first cargo in 2016, so any long-term contracts for that site would likely go until at least 2036. Meanwhile, Calcasieu Pass has 20-year contracts that haven’t even started yet. Likewise, most of the new U.S. projects being built offer 20-year contracts that won’t even begin until the end of this decade. (To track the progress of U.S. LNG export projects under development, see our weekly LNG Voyager report.) It’s also important to note that the need for project financing — and the long-term commitments that provide it — is not needed for terminals that have already been built and the original 20-year-old deals underpinning them have expired, which makes shorter arrangements more viable. In addition, some of the long-term commitments signed recently for projects under development also provide volumes today — bridging cargoes intended to meet a buyer’s potential supply gap.
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