As we bid adieu to 2022, it’s once again time for the Top 10 RBN Energy Prognostications, our long-standing tradition where we look into our crystal ball to see what the upcoming year has in store for energy markets. And unlike many forecasters, we also look into the rearview mirror to see how we did with last year’s predictions. Ouch. No, we did not predict a lingering, hot war in Europe in 2022, and that had a variety of ramifications for our scorecard this time around. Even so, we actually feel pretty good about those market calls. Most turned out to be spot-on, and for the others, well, it’s informative just to see what we thought was going to happen in 2022, pre-Ukraine. Then tomorrow we’ll take on the challenge of predicting the energy markets of 2023. But today it’s time to look back. Back to what we posted on January 2, 2022.
The last three years have not been kind to the prognostication business. A pandemic. Crazy weather events. Prices collapsing, then soaring to all-time records. Then in February 2022, Russia’s horrific invasion of Ukraine, along with the energy sanctions, embargoes, supply cuts and shortages that ensued. And notably, those developments are driving a reset in the prioritization of energy security versus the energy transition, a major theme in our Top 10 Blogs of 2022. It’s a different energy market than what was on the horizon this time last year. Let’s go back to how things looked a year ago to see what we can learn about the huge market shift we’ve been through, and what it means for what’s just over the horizon.
So here’s our 2022 Prognostications report card. We’ll start at #10 and work our way down to #1.
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