RBN Energy

It now seems likely that Elliott Investment Management’s Amber Energy will acquire CITGO Petroleum for $7.3 billion in mid-2025, thereby ending a yearslong legal drama about the fate of CITGO’s three large U.S. refineries and related pipelines and terminal assets. So what exactly is Amber buying and how will the refineries in question fare in the increasingly competitive global market for refined fuels? In today’s RBN blog, we’ll summarize the long legal battle that led to Amber’s selection by a federal court’s “special master” as the preferred buyer, examine the assets to be acquired, and assess what’s ahead for CITGO’s refineries, which have a combined capacity of more than 800 Mb/d.

Californians love their cars. Be it a lemon-yellow Lamborghini whizzing around Los Angeles freeways or a  Jeep cruising the Pacific Coast Highway, getting behind the wheel is not just about coming of age — it’s a life goal in the Golden State. California also typically has the costliest gasoline in the U.S. (except when  Hawaii holds that title), exacerbated by occasional price spikes and supply squeezes. The state responded in 2023 with a new law — SB X1-2 — designed in part to increase gasoline price transparency and assess potential ways to ensure consistent and affordable supply. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll examine the California Energy Commission’s (CEC) first assessment of the law’s impact.

Some U.S. refiners report lower-than-market gasoline profit margins in the summer, which are often attributed to summer volatility specifications. But that is not always the primary issue; rather, some refiners have trouble generating enough octane-barrels due to the strong demand during the summer months, which can help drive price spikes. In today’s RBN blog we explain why, with a focus on octane, the primary yardstick of gasoline performance, quality and price, and show how refiners use a PIANO analysis to optimize their production. 

The last few years have been filled with often-spirited debate about the global energy transition and the move away from fossil fuels to fully embrace renewables and alternatives to keep the lights on, fuel vehicles and power the world’s economy. But there are a growing number of signs that a swift shift from petroleum is not realistic, which has implications in many areas, including which refinery expansion projects move forward (and where), when oil demand might peak, and which of the many forecasts for gasoline and distillate production will prove to be the most accurate. In today’s RBN blog, we discuss highlights from the new Future of Fuels report by RBN’s Refined Fuels Analytics (RFA) practice, including RFA’s expectations for how a slower transition might affect producers, refiners and consumers. 

Refinery distillation units separate crude oil into light, medium and heavy fractions. After that, refiners start performing chemical reactions using catalysts — materials that accelerate chemical reactions — to change the oil’s natural molecules into the forms needed in modern fuels. In recent years, refiners have stepped up their efforts to recycle those catalysts to improve their profitability and environmental performance. In today’s RBN blog, we explain how catalysts, which were formerly disposed of as hazardous waste, are increasingly being recycled and reused in refineries. 

The federal Renewable Identification Number (RIN) and California’s Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) have long served as tools to force renewable fuels like ethanol into the U.S. fuel supply. They are environmental credits that subsidize production of renewable fuels that would not otherwise be economically justified. Nuances embedded in the design of these credit systems have again kicked in to surprise the markets, this time with a hit to renewable diesel (RD) margins. Today’s RBN blog zeroes in on two root causes for that hit.