RBN Energy

A primary objective of the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) implemented in 2007 was to stimulate the production of at least 16 billion gallons/year of gasoline and diesel made from cellulosic biomass, or non-food crops and waste biomass like corn stalks, corncobs, straw, wood, wood byproducts and animal manure. But the vision of making gasoline from wood chips never materialized and today’s cellulosic biofuel is a whole different ballgame. In today’s RBN blog, we look at the evolution of cellulosic biofuels and the D3 Renewable Identification Number, aka the D3 RIN. 

Analyst Insights

Analyst Insights are unique perspectives provided by RBN analysts about energy markets developments. The Insights may cover a wide range of information, such as industry trends, fundamentals, competitive landscape, or other market rumblings. These Insights are designed to be bite-size but punchy analysis so that readers can stay abreast of the most important market changes.

By Jeremy Meier - Friday, 2/14/2025 (3:15 pm)

US oil and gas rig count posted its third consecutive weekly increase, adding two rigs and climbing to 588 for the week ending Fegruary 14 according to Baker Hughes. Rigs were added in the Permian (+1), Anadarko (+1) and All Other (+1), while the Bakken (-1) was the only basin to post a decline.

By John Abeln - Friday, 2/14/2025 (1:45 pm)

Kosmos Energy announced on February 10 that the Greater Tortue Ahmeyim LNG export facility has achieved first LNG production. The facility is located off the coast of the West African nations of Mauritania and Senegal.

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Daily Energy Blog

Category:
Natural Gas

Rising demand for natural gas storage in the Gulf Coast region has spurred growing interest and investment. A number of midstream companies have been making moves, either by expanding their existing storage facilities in Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama or entering the space with acquisitions or plans for greenfield projects. As a result, more than 150 Bcf of new gas storage space is in various stages of development. In today’s RBN blog, we discuss highlights from our new Drill Down Report on Gulf Coast gas storage. 

Category:
Crude Oil

The small town of Cushing, OK, occupies a central place in the U.S. crude oil market thanks to its hundreds of storage tanks and numerous pipeline connections. And while it might seem far removed from the factors that influence the global crude market, what happens elsewhere directly impacts the storage volumes at Cushing. In today’s RBN blog, we review the critical role that Cushing plays in crude oil storage, show how the forward curve can influence inventories, and look at what might be behind the recent uptick in storage levels, which followed a four-month slide. 

Category:
Power

If all goes to plan, Texas’s isolated power grid will one day be connected to a pair of neighboring states via a massive transmission line called Southern Spirit. The project is designed to increase grid reliability, reduce blackouts and drive down energy bills, but it could be years before it becomes a reality. And while the transmission line will connect Texas with Louisiana and Mississippi, it is more akin to a drawbridge that can be raised or lowered as needed without subjecting the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) grid to federal oversight. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll discuss what the Southern Spirit transmission line would mean for Texas. 

Category:
Refined Fuels

It’s relatively common along the U.S. Gulf Coast to use underground salt domes to store crude oil, natural gas, mixed NGLs and so-called NGL “purity products” like ethane and propane. There are also a handful of salt cavern storage facilities in Kansas, Michigan, New York and Virginia. But in the Rockies and the West Coast states they’re rare as hen’s teeth, one of the few examples being Sawtooth Caverns, a one-of-a-kind facility in Utah that not only stores propane and butanes but also gasoline and diesel. In today’s RBN blog, we discuss Sawtooth Caverns and its increasing role in the sprawling region’s NGL and refined products markets. 

Category:
Financial

Just over three years ago, Cabot Oil & Gas — Coterra Energy’s corporate predecessor — was focused exclusively on producing natural gas in the Marcellus Shale. But unlike other gas-centric E&Ps like EQT Corp., Chesapeake Energy and Antero Resources, Cabot decided it was time to diversify. In October 2021, it merged with Cimarex Energy, an oil-and-gas producer in the Permian and the Anadarko, to form Coterra. Now, Coterra has doubled down on diversification with a plan to acquire oil-weighted Permian assets from privately held Franklin Mountain Energy and Avant Natural Resources for a total of $3.95 billion in cash and stock. In today’s RBN blog, we discuss the deals and why Cabot/Coterra decided to “go its own way.” 

Category:
Natural Gas Liquids

Exactly the same product. Exactly the same day. In storage very nearby. Yet their prices diverged by 17 cents per gallon — a spread equivalent to $7 per barrel. That’s a very substantial difference for prices that typically are almost indistinguishable, differing by an average of only 0.3% in recent years. The disparity roiled the financial underpinnings of exports for over a month and busted numerous inventory hedges. Is this some rare commodity? Hardly. It’s Mont Belvieu propane, the Rock of Gibraltar benchmark propane price in the U.S., and to a great extent around the world. But during October there was a crack in that rock a mile wide. 

Category:
Crude Oil

The Atlantic hurricane season often evokes worries about the oil and refined products industry, even far up the East Coast, thanks to the widespread impact of Superstorm Sandy a dozen years ago. But electricity production could also be at risk should a major storm once again make its way up the Eastern Seaboard thanks to the large-scale wind farms under development there. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll examine the threats, how they might impact Atlantic Coast wind power, and how offshore turbines are designed to withstand severe storms. 

Category:
Refined Fuels

There’s been a lot of speculation about whether the pace of electric vehicle (EV) adoption has slowed, with JD Power now expecting EVs to make up 9% of U.S. new-car sales in 2024, down from its earlier estimate of 12.4% but still up from 7% in 2023. The group remains bullish on EVs in the long term, expecting market share to reach 36% by 2030 and 58% by 2035. The forecast from RBN’s Refined Fuels Analytics (RFA) group forecast has been — and continues to be — more conservative than most but still anticipates EVs will reach 50% of U.S. new-car sales by the early 2040s. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll look at what drives these forecasts and the anticipated impacts on gasoline demand. 

Category:
Natural Gas Liquids

A slew of LPG, ethane and ethylene export projects are underway along the Gulf Coast, a direct result of rising U.S. NGL production and generally flat domestic demand. Three of the projects will provide “flex” capacity of some sort — that is, the facilities will be able to shift between LPG and ethane exports or, in some cases, between ethane and ethylene. In today’s RBN blog, we review the history of U.S. LPG and ethane exports, why midstreamers have been struggling to keep up with export capacity, and how the ongoing addition of flex capacity is likely to play out.

Category:
Renewables

One of the biggest challenges to a significant expansion of the commercial hydrogen market in the U.S. is the lack of a comprehensive transportation network. That has spurred interest from utilities, government agencies and others interested in utilizing or repurposing parts of the existing (and extensive) natural gas infrastructure to ship hydrogen. But that approach comes with some challenges, starting with the significant differences in the physical and chemical properties of hydrogen and methane, the main component of natural gas. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll explain why moving hydrogen on the existing natural gas network — then storing and utilizing it — is no easy feat. 

Category:
Natural Gas

One of the most prevalent stories in the U.S. natural gas market over the past decade has been soaring associated gas production in the Permian Basin and the question of what to do with it. Numerous pipelines have been built over the years connecting Permian gas to demand regions, and more are in the works. The largest source of incremental demand is LNG exports, mostly from the Sabine River area at the Texas/Louisiana border. The catch is, getting Permian gas past Houston to the banks of the Sabine presents significant challenges. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll discuss Kinder Morgan’s proposed Trident Pipeline — an attempt to overcome those challenges — and explain why this new outlet would alter gas pricing and flow dynamics in the broader Gulf Coast region. 

Category:
Natural Gas

There may be ongoing uncertainty about the timing and volumes, but it’s not difficult to anticipate that natural gas flows through the Agua Dulce Hub near Corpus Christi will be rising significantly over the next few years as new LNG export capacity starts up and new gas-fired power plants come online in South Texas and south of the border in Mexico. In today’s RBN blog, we discuss the status of the pipelines under development to transport gas into and out of Agua Dulce and the LNG facilities and power plants being planned and built to receive that gas. We’ll also look at our forecast for pipeline-corridor flows in the Agua Dulce area. 

Category:
Natural Gas Liquids

The Gulf Coast is the engine of U.S. energy markets and its fiercely competitive. Over the past decade, monumental growth of crude oil and NGL production, predominantly from the Permian Basin, has led to a surge in exports, with more than 90% of these liquids departing from marine terminals along the Texas and Louisiana coasts. To facilitate that growth, the region has also experienced a tremendous buildout of gathering systems, pipelines, processing facilities, and especially export docks. Major Gulf Coast market regions like Corpus Christi, Houston, Beaumont, Lake Charles and Baton Rouge all have unique advantages and disadvantages. And the companies that operate in those regions have strategic motivations for where they would like to see new volumes go. As the Gulf Coast energy sector presses on to a new horizon, competition for market share among major players is intense, impacting producers, midstream operators, downstream consumers and exporters alike. That was the focus of our recent NACON: PADD 3 conference and it’s the subject of today’s RBN blog. 

Category:
Refined Fuels

Weak refining margins, rising regulatory compliance costs, softening demand for gasoline and the push for lower-carbon alternatives like batteries and renewable diesel have each contributed to a steady decline in California’s refining capacity the past few years. Now, Phillips 66’s plan to idle its 139-Mb/d Los Angeles Refinery in Q4 2025 will leave the Golden State with only seven conventional refineries producing gasoline, diesel and jet fuel — a couple of dozen fewer than it had 40 years ago. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll put P66’s recent announcement in context and discuss the likelihood of additional refinery closures. 

Category:
Refined Fuels

Oxygen-containing gasoline additives called oxygenates, including ethanol, have provided an octane boost to the U.S. gasoline pool since 2000. This has allowed refineries to reduce the octane of refinery-produced gasoline, which increases their gasoline production capacity and efficiency while simultaneously helping achieve the goals for cleaner, lower-carbon fuels derived from domestic renewable feedstocks. A new approach to gasoline formulation promises to take this “sharing” of the octane load much further to exploit the unique octane-enhancing qualities of ethanol, although there are some real-world challenges to wider implementation. In today’s RBN blog, we explain what’s behind the concept of “hydrogen-rich” gasoline.