Bakken

During the past two years the US domestic crude transportation business has been revitalized by a huge increase in shipments of crude oil by rail. In the Bakken region alone over 600 Mb/d of crude is shipped to market by rail. The number of rail terminals in producing regions loading crude oil onto rail tank cars has increased from a handful at the end of 2011 to 88 and growing today. A further 66 crude oil unloading terminals have been built or are under construction. Today we summarize the crude oil terminal build out by region and by railroad.

Last week (April 29, 2013) the economics of crude-by-rail began to get real interesting as the differentials between inland crudes priced against West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and coastal crudes priced against Brent narrowed to less than $9/Bbl. The Brent/WTI differential traded at about $17/Bbl on average during 2012 and helped to justify the expansion of crude by rail to allow producers to reach higher priced coastal markets. Now the spread is less than the cost of rail transport from the Bakken to the East Coast. Today we delve into the costs of rail transportation and build a netback comparison for Bakken producers.

Yesterday the Intercontinental Exchange Brent premium to WTI NYMEX closed at $9.31/Bbl, its lowest value since January 2012. Spread watchers have long anticipated this narrowing but it throws a spanner in the economics of crude by rail shipments from North Dakota. Today we suggest that the Brent/WTI spread may have narrowed before crude supply fundamentals justify the move and that it could widen again quickly to $15 or higher.

Natural gas liquids (NGL) production from the Bakken has increased from only 20 Mb/d two years ago to almost 50 Mb/d today.  And that is with nearly one-third of the natural gas in the region being flared and no outlet for ethane.  For years gathering, processing and pipeline constraints have held back production growth.  But that’s all changing.  ONEOK has completed their NGL pipeline and plant expansion project and more outlets are on the way.  Production could rise to more than 300 Mb/d by 2018.  In today’s blog, we examine the Bakken NGL situation.

There is plenty of crude oil in North Dakota but the State does not refine enough of it to meet rising demand for diesel caused by booming energy industry activity. The latest North Dakota Pipeline Authority data shows oil production in February 2013 up 40 percent since February 2012 to 778 Mb/d.  Demand for diesel increased 35 percent between February 2010 and February 2013. North Dakota’s only refinery produces less than half the diesel the State consumes. To help remedy that disparity the first new refinery to be built in the Lower 48 since 1977 is under construction today and two more new refineries are planned. Today we look at the refinery economics.

January 2013 oil production from the Denver-Julesburg and Powder River Basin Niobrara Shale plays in Colorado and Wyoming was 170 Mb/d (Bentek estimate). Operators in the Niobrara have been running hot and cold on the play ever since a gusher in Weld County, CO hit the headlines in October 2009 by producing 550 b/d in its first ninety days. Some like Chesapeake have sold assets; others like Noble Energy expect their oil production to increase significantly in 2013. Today we check out the current sentiment on this Rockies play.

Crude by rail is shifting to the West Coast in a big way.  By the end of 2012 unit trains carrying light sweet Bakken crude had begun to flow to Washington State refineries. In 2013 West Coast refiners and terminal operators have continued investment in terminals to receive oil from the Bakken and Western Canada. Today we survey developing West Coast crude rail terminals.

Last June (2012) the largest refinery on the East Coast was on the brink of closing - in part due to higher international crude prices (versus US inland grades). Since then the 330 Mb/d Philadelphia Energy Solutions refinery has reopened and along with several of its competitors the new owners have developed means to get access to lower priced crude from North Dakota and Western Canada using rail. Today’s episode of our continuing crude by rail series is a survey of East Coast rail offloading facilities.