rail

Yesterday the Intercontinental Exchange Brent premium to WTI NYMEX closed at $9.31/Bbl, its lowest value since January 2012. Spread watchers have long anticipated this narrowing but it throws a spanner in the economics of crude by rail shipments from North Dakota. Today we suggest that the Brent/WTI spread may have narrowed before crude supply fundamentals justify the move and that it could widen again quickly to $15 or higher.

Last June (2012) the largest refinery on the East Coast was on the brink of closing - in part due to higher international crude prices (versus US inland grades). Since then the 330 Mb/d Philadelphia Energy Solutions refinery has reopened and along with several of its competitors the new owners have developed means to get access to lower priced crude from North Dakota and Western Canada using rail. Today’s episode of our continuing crude by rail series is a survey of East Coast rail offloading facilities. 

Cushing, Ok has historically been known as the “Pipeline Capital of the World”. That was before the pipelines got congested in 2011 and inventory piled up – creating a discount warehouse for crude. As producers waited for pipeline infrastructure to come to the rescue the railroads took up the slack. Now crude rail loading terminals are being operated and built in every production region in North America and it is reported that crude is being trucked out of Cushing and loaded onto trains. Today we complete our survey of crude loading terminals.

Western Canadian heavy crude oil producers have a lot of rail tank cars on order but so far none of the loading terminals in the production region can handle unit trains. The pace of terminal development in Alberta is far slower than North Dakota in 2012. Because you can ship raw bitumen without diluent there are potential cost savings over pipelines but the load and offload facilities are more complex. Today we conclude our mini survey of Canadian heavy crude loading terminals.

Western Canadian heavy crude production is set to increase by more than 1 MMb/d over the next 5 years. Pipelines out of the region are full and new capacity is not expected online until 2014. Just like the Bakken in 2012, producers are looking more seriously at rail. The economics of getting crudes like Western Canadian Select (WCS) to market by rail instead of pipeline are favorable because of heavy discounts versus Gulf Coast equivalent crudes like Mexican Maya. Today we look at the rail options for Canadian producers.

The dramatic growth in North Dakota crude by rail during 2012 included large unit train terminals built to load 80 Mb/d or more. At the same time smaller companies successfully operated alongside the big guys – loading manifest trains at out-of-the-way terminals. North of the border in Saskatchewan, Canadian railroads are advertising their terminal facilities but most have limited capacity. Today we continue our crude by rail series with a look at the plethora [1] of smaller Bakken terminals.